ProFundraising · Simulator
VC Portfolio Returns Simulator
The power law behind venture returns.
Assumptions
Invested
$10,000,000
Portfolio value
$43,000,000
Fund MOIC
4.3x
| Outcome | Deals | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 0x (write-offs) | 10 | $0 |
| ~1x | 6 | $3,000,000 |
| 10x | 3 | $15,000,000 |
| 50x | 1 | $25,000,000 |
🔒 Save scenarios, export to Excel & PDF, run AI analysis, and unlock every simulator.
Unlock Toolkit Pro →Toolkit Pro
Save your scenarios, export to Excel & PDF, run AI analysis, and unlock every simulator — $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or any 3 for $20.
Built by The Crimson Bench · Educational model, not financial advice
About the VC Portfolio Returns Simulator
Model a portfolio of investments with a mix of outcomes to see the fund’s overall return — and why a few winners carry everything.
It's built for directional planning: change any assumption and watch the whole projection move, the way a seasoned operator pressure-tests a plan before committing capital. Everything is computed live in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere.
How the VC Portfolio Returns Simulator Works
The model takes 6 assumptions and returns 3 headline metrics plus a full breakdown. Here is exactly what goes in and what comes out — no black box.
The Inputs
| Assumption | Example value |
|---|---|
| Investments | 20 |
| Check size | $500,000 |
| % that return 0x | 50% |
| % that return ~1x | 30% |
| % that return 10x | 15% |
| % that return 50x | 5% |
Worked Example
Every figure below is produced by the live model using the example assumptions above. Change any input in the simulator to see your own numbers.
Invested
$10,000,000
Portfolio value
$43,000,000
Fund MOIC
4.3x
| Outcome | Deals | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 0x (write-offs) | 10 | $0 |
| ~1x | 6 | $3,000,000 |
| 10x | 3 | $15,000,000 |
| 50x | 1 | $25,000,000 |
The Operator's Read
Half the portfolio can go to zero and the fund still wins — because the 50x winner returns more than everything else combined. Venture is a power-law game: you're hunting outliers, not batting average. Educational only.
Assumptions & Limitations
- •The model is deterministic: it projects your inputs forward with clear arithmetic, not a Monte-Carlo or probabilistic forecast. It shows one scenario at a time — run several to bracket a range.
- •Defaults are illustrative benchmarks, not your business. Replace every field with your real numbers before drawing conclusions.
- •It abstracts away taxes, financing, seasonality, and one-off events unless a field explicitly captures them. Treat the output as a directional estimate.
- •This is an educational tool, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate real decisions with a qualified professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the VC Portfolio Returns Simulator calculate?
Model a portfolio of investments with a mix of outcomes to see the fund’s overall return — and why a few winners carry everything. It takes 6 assumptions — Investments, Check size, % that return 0x, % that return ~1x, % that return 10x, % that return 50x — and returns Invested, Portfolio value, Fund MOIC, along with a full projection table you can export.
How do I use the VC Portfolio Returns Simulator?
Enter your own figures in the input fields above — Investments, Check size, % that return 0x, and the rest. The model recalculates instantly and shows the resulting Invested and full breakdown. No sign-up needed to run it.
Is the VC Portfolio Returns Simulator free?
Yes — you can run the simulator and see the headline results for free. Toolkit Pro unlocks the full projection table, Excel/PDF export, saved scenarios, and AI analysis: $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or unlock any 3 simulators for $20.
What's the difference between this and a free calculator?
A calculator answers one question. This simulator models the full picture — multiple linked assumptions, a projection table, and scenario comparison — the way an operator would build it in a spreadsheet, but instantly.
Who built the VC Portfolio Returns Simulator?
The Crimson Bench's Ivy League-educated operators — the same people we deploy into C-suites. This is the self-serve version of a model they'd build inside a live engagement.
Is this financial advice?
No. The VC Portfolio Returns Simulator is an educational modeling tool for directional planning — not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate any real decision with a qualified professional.
Related Fundraising Simulators
More models in the same category.
Fundraising Dilution Simulator
See your ownership across every round — before you sign the first.
Company Valuation Suite
Three valuation methods, one defensible range.
LBO Returns Simulator
Model private-equity returns — MOIC and IRR.
SBA Acquisition Simulator
Can the business service the loan that buys it?
M&A Earnout Simulator
What a deal with an earnout is really worth.
PE Carry Waterfall Simulator
How fund profits split between LPs and the GP.
The Crimson Bench · Est. 2002 · Founded in New York City
Need an operator, not just a model?
Verified corporate accounts only. Ivy League-educated. Flat-rate pricing. 14-day no-cause cancellation.
25,000+ Ivy League Executives · 150,000+ Global Consultants · 48-Hour Deployment