ProTrading · Simulator
Trading Expectancy Simulator
Is your strategy actually profitable?
Assumptions
Expectancy / trade
$53
Monthly
$2,100
Annualized
$25,200
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Expected value per trade | $53 |
| Trades per month | 40 |
| Monthly expectancy | $2,100 |
🔒 Save scenarios, export to Excel & PDF, run AI analysis, and unlock every simulator.
Unlock Toolkit Pro →Toolkit Pro
Save your scenarios, export to Excel & PDF, run AI analysis, and unlock every simulator — $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or any 3 for $20.
Built by The Crimson Bench · Educational model, not financial advice
About the Trading Expectancy Simulator
Enter win rate, average win, and average loss to see expectancy per trade — the single number that decides if a system makes money.
It's built for directional planning: change any assumption and watch the whole projection move, the way a seasoned operator pressure-tests a plan before committing capital. Everything is computed live in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere.
How the Trading Expectancy Simulator Works
The model takes 4 assumptions and returns 3 headline metrics plus a full breakdown. Here is exactly what goes in and what comes out — no black box.
The Inputs
| Assumption | Example value |
|---|---|
| Win rate | 45% |
| Average win | $300 |
| Average loss | $150 |
| Trades / month | 40 |
Worked Example
Every figure below is produced by the live model using the example assumptions above. Change any input in the simulator to see your own numbers.
Expectancy / trade
$53
Monthly
$2,100
Annualized
$25,200
| Line | Amount |
|---|---|
| Expected value per trade | $53 |
| Trades per month | 40 |
| Monthly expectancy | $2,100 |
The Operator's Read
Positive expectancy of $53/trade — over enough trades, volume works for you. Protect the edge; it's the whole game.
Assumptions & Limitations
- •The model is deterministic: it projects your inputs forward with clear arithmetic, not a Monte-Carlo or probabilistic forecast. It shows one scenario at a time — run several to bracket a range.
- •Defaults are illustrative benchmarks, not your business. Replace every field with your real numbers before drawing conclusions.
- •It abstracts away taxes, financing, seasonality, and one-off events unless a field explicitly captures them. Treat the output as a directional estimate.
- •This is an educational tool, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate real decisions with a qualified professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Trading Expectancy Simulator calculate?
Enter win rate, average win, and average loss to see expectancy per trade — the single number that decides if a system makes money. It takes 4 assumptions — Win rate, Average win, Average loss, Trades / month — and returns Expectancy / trade, Monthly, Annualized, along with a full projection table you can export.
How do I use the Trading Expectancy Simulator?
Enter your own figures in the input fields above — Win rate, Average win, Average loss, and the rest. The model recalculates instantly and shows the resulting Expectancy / trade and full breakdown. No sign-up needed to run it.
Is the Trading Expectancy Simulator free?
Yes — you can run the simulator and see the headline results for free. Toolkit Pro unlocks the full projection table, Excel/PDF export, saved scenarios, and AI analysis: $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or unlock any 3 simulators for $20.
What's the difference between this and a free calculator?
A calculator answers one question. This simulator models the full picture — multiple linked assumptions, a projection table, and scenario comparison — the way an operator would build it in a spreadsheet, but instantly.
Who built the Trading Expectancy Simulator?
The Crimson Bench's Ivy League-educated operators — the same people we deploy into C-suites. This is the self-serve version of a model they'd build inside a live engagement.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Trading Expectancy Simulator is an educational modeling tool for directional planning — not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate any real decision with a qualified professional.
Related Trading Simulators
More models in the same category.
Position Size Calculator
Risk a fixed amount — let the stop set your size.
Risk / Reward Calculator
The win rate a trade actually needs.
Kelly Criterion Calculator
The mathematically optimal bet size.
Drawdown Recovery Calculator
Why losses hurt more than they look.
Leverage Liquidation Calculator
How small a move wipes a leveraged position.
Compound Trading Returns Simulator
What a small per-trade edge compounds to.
The Crimson Bench · Est. 2002 · Founded in New York City
Need an operator, not just a model?
Verified corporate accounts only. Ivy League-educated. Flat-rate pricing. 14-day no-cause cancellation.
25,000+ Ivy League Executives · 150,000+ Global Consultants · 48-Hour Deployment