ProSaaS · Simulator
Retention Curve LTV Simulator
A realistic LTV — churn that improves with age.
Assumptions
LTV / customer
$448
Retained (mo 24)
30%
24-mo margin
$447,643
| Month | Active | Cumulative Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Month 3 | 741 | $98,228 |
| Month 6 | 577 | $173,399 |
| Month 9 | 472 | $233,812 |
| Month 12 | 404 | $284,763 |
| Month 15 | 363 | $329,818 |
| Month 18 | 340 | $371,496 |
| Month 21 | 320 | $410,723 |
| Month 24 | 301 | $447,643 |
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Built by The Crimson Bench · Educational model, not financial advice
About the Retention Curve LTV Simulator
Model a cohort whose churn declines as it matures (as real ones do) to get an LTV that flat-churn models miss.
It's built for directional planning: change any assumption and watch the whole projection move, the way a seasoned operator pressure-tests a plan before committing capital. Everything is computed live in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere.
How the Retention Curve LTV Simulator Works
The model takes 5 assumptions and returns 3 headline metrics plus a full breakdown. Here is exactly what goes in and what comes out — no black box.
The Inputs
| Assumption | Example value |
|---|---|
| Cohort size | 1,000 |
| Month-1 churn | 10% |
| Churn decline / mo (pts) | 0.5 |
| ARPU / mo | $50 |
| Gross margin | 80% |
Worked Example
Every figure below is produced by the live model using the example assumptions above. Change any input in the simulator to see your own numbers.
LTV / customer
$448
Retained (mo 24)
30%
24-mo margin
$447,643
| Month | Active | Cumulative Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Month 3 | 741 | $98,228 |
| Month 6 | 577 | $173,399 |
| Month 9 | 472 | $233,812 |
| Month 12 | 404 | $284,763 |
| Month 15 | 363 | $329,818 |
| Month 18 | 340 | $371,496 |
The Operator's Read
Real retention curves flatten — the customers who survive the early months tend to stay for years. Flat-churn LTV models understate the value of those loyal survivors, and with it how much you can spend to acquire. Educational only.
Assumptions & Limitations
- •The model is deterministic: it projects your inputs forward with clear arithmetic, not a Monte-Carlo or probabilistic forecast. It shows one scenario at a time — run several to bracket a range.
- •Defaults are illustrative benchmarks, not your business. Replace every field with your real numbers before drawing conclusions.
- •It abstracts away taxes, financing, seasonality, and one-off events unless a field explicitly captures them. Treat the output as a directional estimate.
- •This is an educational tool, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate real decisions with a qualified professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Retention Curve LTV Simulator calculate?
Model a cohort whose churn declines as it matures (as real ones do) to get an LTV that flat-churn models miss. It takes 5 assumptions — Cohort size, Month-1 churn, Churn decline / mo (pts), ARPU / mo, Gross margin — and returns LTV / customer, Retained (mo 24), 24-mo margin, along with a full projection table you can export.
How do I use the Retention Curve LTV Simulator?
Enter your own figures in the input fields above — Cohort size, Month-1 churn, Churn decline / mo (pts), and the rest. The model recalculates instantly and shows the resulting LTV / customer and full breakdown. No sign-up needed to run it.
Is the Retention Curve LTV Simulator free?
Yes — you can run the simulator and see the headline results for free. Toolkit Pro unlocks the full projection table, Excel/PDF export, saved scenarios, and AI analysis: $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or unlock any 3 simulators for $20.
What's the difference between this and a free calculator?
A calculator answers one question. This simulator models the full picture — multiple linked assumptions, a projection table, and scenario comparison — the way an operator would build it in a spreadsheet, but instantly.
Who built the Retention Curve LTV Simulator?
The Crimson Bench's Ivy League-educated operators — the same people we deploy into C-suites. This is the self-serve version of a model they'd build inside a live engagement.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Retention Curve LTV Simulator is an educational modeling tool for directional planning — not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate any real decision with a qualified professional.
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The Crimson Bench · Est. 2002 · Founded in New York City
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