ProEnergy · Simulator
Oil Well Decline Simulator
Project production and revenue as a well declines.
Assumptions
Year 1 profit
$1,642,500
6-yr cumulative
$4,830,872
Production (yr 6)
17 bbl/day
| Year | Bbl / Day | Revenue | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 100 | $2,555,000 | $1,642,500 |
| Year 2 | 70 | $1,788,500 | $1,149,750 |
| Year 3 | 49 | $1,251,950 | $804,825 |
| Year 4 | 34 | $876,365 | $563,377 |
| Year 5 | 24 | $613,456 | $394,364 |
| Year 6 | 17 | $429,419 | $276,055 |
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Built by The Crimson Bench · Educational model, not financial advice
About the Oil Well Decline Simulator
Model a well’s natural production decline against price and operating cost to see revenue fall over the years.
It's built for directional planning: change any assumption and watch the whole projection move, the way a seasoned operator pressure-tests a plan before committing capital. Everything is computed live in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere.
How the Oil Well Decline Simulator Works
The model takes 4 assumptions and returns 3 headline metrics plus a full breakdown. Here is exactly what goes in and what comes out — no black box.
The Inputs
| Assumption | Example value |
|---|---|
| Initial production (bbl/day) | 100 |
| Annual decline | 30% |
| Price per barrel | $70 |
| Opex per barrel | $25 |
Worked Example
Every figure below is produced by the live model using the example assumptions above. Change any input in the simulator to see your own numbers.
Year 1 profit
$1,642,500
6-yr cumulative
$4,830,872
Production (yr 6)
17 bbl/day
| Year | Bbl / Day | Revenue | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 100 | $2,555,000 | $1,642,500 |
| Year 2 | 70 | $1,788,500 | $1,149,750 |
| Year 3 | 49 | $1,251,950 | $804,825 |
| Year 4 | 34 | $876,365 | $563,377 |
| Year 5 | 24 | $613,456 | $394,364 |
| Year 6 | 17 | $429,419 | $276,055 |
The Operator's Read
Wells front-load their returns — most cash comes in the first couple of years before decline sets in. That's why payback speed matters more than headline reserves, and why price at the start is so critical. Educational only.
Assumptions & Limitations
- •The model is deterministic: it projects your inputs forward with clear arithmetic, not a Monte-Carlo or probabilistic forecast. It shows one scenario at a time — run several to bracket a range.
- •Defaults are illustrative benchmarks, not your business. Replace every field with your real numbers before drawing conclusions.
- •It abstracts away taxes, financing, seasonality, and one-off events unless a field explicitly captures them. Treat the output as a directional estimate.
- •This is an educational tool, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate real decisions with a qualified professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Oil Well Decline Simulator calculate?
Model a well’s natural production decline against price and operating cost to see revenue fall over the years. It takes 4 assumptions — Initial production (bbl/day), Annual decline, Price per barrel, Opex per barrel — and returns Year 1 profit, 6-yr cumulative, Production (yr 6), along with a full projection table you can export.
How do I use the Oil Well Decline Simulator?
Enter your own figures in the input fields above — Initial production (bbl/day), Annual decline, Price per barrel, and the rest. The model recalculates instantly and shows the resulting Year 1 profit and full breakdown. No sign-up needed to run it.
Is the Oil Well Decline Simulator free?
Yes — you can run the simulator and see the headline results for free. Toolkit Pro unlocks the full projection table, Excel/PDF export, saved scenarios, and AI analysis: $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or unlock any 3 simulators for $20.
What's the difference between this and a free calculator?
A calculator answers one question. This simulator models the full picture — multiple linked assumptions, a projection table, and scenario comparison — the way an operator would build it in a spreadsheet, but instantly.
Who built the Oil Well Decline Simulator?
The Crimson Bench's Ivy League-educated operators — the same people we deploy into C-suites. This is the self-serve version of a model they'd build inside a live engagement.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Oil Well Decline Simulator is an educational modeling tool for directional planning — not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate any real decision with a qualified professional.
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The Crimson Bench · Est. 2002 · Founded in New York City
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