ProRevenue · Simulator
MRR Waterfall Simulator
Project recurring revenue with every moving part.
Assumptions
Ending MRR
$135,211
Ending ARR
$1,622,536
Avg net new / mo
$7,101
| Month | + New | + Expansion | − Churn | MRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 2 | $8,000 | $1,150 | -$1,725 | $64,925 |
| Month 4 | $8,000 | $1,446 | -$2,168 | $79,553 |
| Month 6 | $8,000 | $1,735 | -$2,603 | $93,890 |
| Month 8 | $8,000 | $2,019 | -$3,029 | $107,941 |
| Month 10 | $8,000 | $2,297 | -$3,446 | $121,713 |
| Month 12 | $8,000 | $2,570 | -$3,855 | $135,211 |
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Built by The Crimson Bench · Educational model, not financial advice
About the MRR Waterfall Simulator
Model MRR forward with new, expansion, contraction, and churn each month. Returns the full waterfall and where your net new revenue actually comes from.
It's built for directional planning: change any assumption and watch the whole projection move, the way a seasoned operator pressure-tests a plan before committing capital. Everything is computed live in your browser — nothing is sent anywhere.
How the MRR Waterfall Simulator Works
The model takes 4 assumptions and returns 3 headline metrics plus a full breakdown. Here is exactly what goes in and what comes out — no black box.
The Inputs
| Assumption | Example value |
|---|---|
| Starting MRR | $50,000 |
| New MRR / month | $8,000 |
| Expansion | 2% |
| Churn | 3% |
Worked Example
Every figure below is produced by the live model using the example assumptions above. Change any input in the simulator to see your own numbers.
Ending MRR
$135,211
Ending ARR
$1,622,536
Avg net new / mo
$7,101
| Month | + New | + Expansion | − Churn | MRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month 2 | $8,000 | $1,150 | -$1,725 | $64,925 |
| Month 4 | $8,000 | $1,446 | -$2,168 | $79,553 |
| Month 6 | $8,000 | $1,735 | -$2,603 | $93,890 |
| Month 8 | $8,000 | $2,019 | -$3,029 | $107,941 |
| Month 10 | $8,000 | $2,297 | -$3,446 | $121,713 |
| Month 12 | $8,000 | $2,570 | -$3,855 | $135,211 |
The Operator's Read
Churn outpaces expansion, so new sales are fighting a headwind every month. Fixing retention lifts every future number at once.
Assumptions & Limitations
- •The model is deterministic: it projects your inputs forward with clear arithmetic, not a Monte-Carlo or probabilistic forecast. It shows one scenario at a time — run several to bracket a range.
- •Defaults are illustrative benchmarks, not your business. Replace every field with your real numbers before drawing conclusions.
- •It abstracts away taxes, financing, seasonality, and one-off events unless a field explicitly captures them. Treat the output as a directional estimate.
- •This is an educational tool, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate real decisions with a qualified professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the MRR Waterfall Simulator calculate?
Model MRR forward with new, expansion, contraction, and churn each month. Returns the full waterfall and where your net new revenue actually comes from. It takes 4 assumptions — Starting MRR, New MRR / month, Expansion, Churn — and returns Ending MRR, Ending ARR, Avg net new / mo, along with a full projection table you can export.
How do I use the MRR Waterfall Simulator?
Enter your own figures in the input fields above — Starting MRR, New MRR / month, Expansion, and the rest. The model recalculates instantly and shows the resulting Ending MRR and full breakdown. No sign-up needed to run it.
Is the MRR Waterfall Simulator free?
Yes — you can run the simulator and see the headline results for free. Toolkit Pro unlocks the full projection table, Excel/PDF export, saved scenarios, and AI analysis: $180/mo, $1,728/yr, or unlock any 3 simulators for $20.
What's the difference between this and a free calculator?
A calculator answers one question. This simulator models the full picture — multiple linked assumptions, a projection table, and scenario comparison — the way an operator would build it in a spreadsheet, but instantly.
Who built the MRR Waterfall Simulator?
The Crimson Bench's Ivy League-educated operators — the same people we deploy into C-suites. This is the self-serve version of a model they'd build inside a live engagement.
Is this financial advice?
No. The MRR Waterfall Simulator is an educational modeling tool for directional planning — not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Validate any real decision with a qualified professional.
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The Crimson Bench · Est. 2002 · Founded in New York City
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